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Meeting 2022 TMS Annual Meeting & Exhibition
Symposium REWAS 2022: Sustainable Production and Development Perspectives
Presentation Title Economics-informed material system modeling of the copper supply chain
Author(s) John Ryter, Xinkai Fu, Karan Bhuwalka, Richard Roth, Elsa Olivetti
On-Site Speaker (Planned) John Ryter
Abstract Scope Material production drives an increasingly large fraction of CO2-equivalent emissions. Material efficiency strategies such as recycling serve to reduce these emissions. However, prior analyses of such strategies do not include economically induced rebound effects, overestimating the associated environmental benefits. We present a dynamic supply chain simulation model for copper through 2040 incorporating inventory-driven price evolution, dynamic material flow analysis, and life cycle assessment alongside mine-level economic evaluation of opening, closing, and capacity utilization decisions. We show that increases in recycling suppress raw material prices, driving increases in demand that limit primary production reduction and offset ~45% of the potential environmental benefits. Sufficiently small recycling increases and policy reversals were found capable of increasing mining and CO2-equivalent emissions. This model was expanded to accommodate regional variations and assess the impacts of China’s solid waste import ban and the COVID-19 pandemic, demonstrating the need for further investment in secondary markets.
Proceedings Inclusion? Planned:
Keywords Copper / Nickel / Cobalt, Environmental Effects, Modeling and Simulation


A review of comprehensive utilization of copper slag of China
Assessing the future resource and environmental impacts of China's aluminum industry: implications of import and export transition
Economics-informed material system modeling of the copper supply chain
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Potential Health Impact Assessment of Large-Scale Production of Batteries for the Electric Grid
Process Simulation and Digitization for Integrated Circularity and Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment of Silicon, Perovskite and Tandem Photovoltaic Systems
Sustainability-based Selection of Materials for Refractory High Entropy Alloys
Techno-economic Analysis of Material Costs for Emerging Flow Batteries
The REMADE Institute: R&D to Accelerate the Transition to a Circular Economy
The UK Transforming the Foundation Industries Research and Innovation Hub (TransFIRe)

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