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Meeting MS&T26: Materials Science & Technology
Symposium Uncertainty Quantification in Ultra-High Temperature Materials Manufacturing
Presentation Title End-to-End Machine Learning for Creep Modeling: Data Processing, Parameter Learning, and Uncertainty Analysis
Author(s) Milly Yi, Yiqing Zhang, Xiang Chen, Mark Messner, Anthony Rollett
On-Site Speaker (Planned) Yiqing Zhang
Abstract Scope In high-temperature applications such as nuclear reactors and heat exchangers, creep is a critical degradation mechanism that can lead to premature failure. Traditional models capture isolated metrics but often fail to represent the full evolution of creep strain. This work presents a data-centric machine learning framework for full creep curve prediction, emphasizing robust data processing, feature extraction, and parameter learning from limited datasets. A structured preprocessing pipeline enables noise-tolerant strain-rate estimation and segmentation of creep regimes, from which physically meaningful parameters are extracted and learned as functions of stress and temperature. To address data scarcity, uncertainty quantification is incorporated to assess prediction reliability. In addition, an AI-assisted workflow is developed to automate data ingestion, parameter fitting, and model training. The approach is demonstrated on steels and nickel-based superalloys, with a focus on Haynes 282, providing a scalable framework for creep modeling in extreme environments.

OTHER PAPERS PLANNED FOR THIS SYMPOSIUM

Autonomous Materials Characterization Through Simulation to Experiment Analysis with Continual Deep Learning
Bayesian Design of Experiments for Calphad Modeling
Computational Tools for Predicting High-Temperature Materials Properties via DFT, MD, and Deep Learning
Data to Discovery: A Closed-Loop Ecosystem for Designing Compositionally Complex Alloys
End-to-End Machine Learning for Creep Modeling: Data Processing, Parameter Learning, and Uncertainty Analysis
From Design to Melt: Rare Earth Retention in Ni-Based Superalloys
From Dirty Processing to Enhanced Performance: Hidden Variables for Strength Consistency in UHTCs
Generalization of a Crystal Plasticity Model from Grade 91 to Grade 92 Steel: A Coupled High-Throughput Constitutive Model and Data-Driven Analysis Approach
MXene and Polymer Derived TiC–SiC Ceramics with Enhanced Electrical Conductivity and Tailored Thermal–Mechanical Performance for High-Temperature Applications
UHTM and the Materials R&D Landscape
Uncertainty-Guided Experimental Determination of Phase Diagrams
Uncertainty Quantification of In-Situ Densification of Polymer-Derived Ceramics
Uncertainty Quantification via Deep Kernel Learning on Synchrotron Diffraction Patterns

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